OPINION: Five things to expect in Germany's snap elections

As those of you reading from the southern half of Germany will know, Sunday was the Twelfth Night. That’s why many of you have a bank holiday on January 6th: enjoy Epiphany! To us political observers, however, it rarely seems like Bavaria is off duty – primarily because the state’s CSU party traditionally uses Dreikönigstag for a party conference at Kloster Seon and so Bavarian politicians tend to dominate the headlines.

That’s all the truer this year, where Monday marks the unofficial start of campaigning for the early general election on February 23rd. ‘Start?’, I hear you say, ‘What about all the playground-level insults and unbacked spending promises already flying around at Christmas?’ Well, if you thought that was unbearable… You ain’t seen nothing yet. 

Here’s what to expect now that the real campaign is upon us.

From January 7th, it will really kick off

Working on the wise principle of ‘Believe it when you see it’, the parties were holding off on even launching their manifestos until it was clear that there actually was going to be an election on 23rd February. Then, they held off on campaigning in earnest over Christmas, realising that Germans did not want their favourite festivities marred by more political wrangling – especially after the Magdeburg Christmas market attack had already cast a pall over things. 

Now, it’s a new year – and time for old favourites like the cheesy mugshot placards on lampposts and canvassing bar-tables on market squares, along with the paid party-political adverts and public grandstanding on social networks. Yes, now that the trees are being taken down, the gloves are coming come off… (Russel-Crowe-voice:) “On my signal, unleash hell!”  

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Markus Söder is going to annoy you. A lot.

The person giving that order loudest is the CDU’s prospective Chancellor Friedrich Merz – and the person actually bringing the underworld upon us will be CSU state premier of Bavaria Markus Söder. Having twice failed to secure support to try for the top spot himself, Söder has made his peace with the prospect of ending his political days in Munich – and is now visibly enjoying the freedom this gives him to indulge his primary passion: garnering media attention with outrageous quips and jibes. 

So expect Merz to use Söder and his outfit as willing attack dogs, let off the leash to pounce at Syrian refugees (‘It’s safe now! Why can’t we send them back?’), people on Bürgergeld basic jobseeker’s allowance (‘Getta job!’), and the Greens (‘Loonies, all of them!’). The CSU’s Alexander Dobrindt started the charge on Monday in his radio interview. The aim will be to win hard-right voters back over from the AfD without making multimillionaire Merz himself look even more like The Simpson’s Mr. Burns than he already does.

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Olaf Scholz is going to surprise you. Again.

Here’s another 1990s pop-cultural reference for you: remember the scene in American Beauty where outwardly-boring Lester Burnham, about to be fired, goes maverick? ‘No Brad: I’m just an ordinary guy with nothin’ to lose!’ Well, Olaf send-‘em-to-sleep Scholz is about to be kicked out of his job, too and who knows what will happen. 

We already saw him lash out in an unexpected way late last year with his unforgettable diss “Fritze Merz erzählt gern Tünkram” – translation (read with a Cockney accent): ‘Freddy Merz loves to tell a porky pie!’ Yes, it’s now all or nothing for Olaf: he’s fighting for the vanishingly thin chance of remaining Chancellor – or will crash out of the political sky taking as many of his contemporaries down with him in the flaming wreckage. Get the popcorn ready!

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Everyone else is going to keep a low profile

One passenger on Olaf’s nosediving flight ejected early, but forgot to pack a parachute: Christian Linder and his FDP are shouting and flailing – it’s just that no-one can hear them anymore as they plummet down past the 5 percent threshold for being in parliament.

The Greens, meanwhile, found the right moment to jump when abstaining on Scholz’ vote of confidence – and as the European Elections showed, can expect a soft landing of between 8-12 percent. Yet now that ecology has dropped off of voters’ radar and the electorate are sick of them after four gruelling years in power, the Greens can’t campaign on either their core ideas or their record. So don’t expect them to campaign much at all – beyond fuzzy soft-focus shots of Robert Habeck for the party faithful.

The AfD will behave quite similarly: like the Greens, they have a solid electoral base who will vote for them anyway – and it’s closer to 20 percent than 10 percent. What is more, everyone knows what the party stands for anyway: ‘Less (sic) foreigners!’ So beyond the usual populist jibes and racist-dog-whistle posters, the AfD will play it cool and bide their time. After all, they’ve no hope of governing in the next parliament and no interest in doing so: Alice Weidel is eyeing up 2029 instead.

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What about BSW? In a word: anyone’s guess. I’m an informed observer of German politics with a passable record on predictions (see last year’s), but Sahra Wagenknecht’s outfit has no previous nationwide form, barely any members or candidates, and an electoral potential anywhere between 2.5 percent and 15 percent. What you definitely can expect: lots of posters with a familiar black bouffant and the word FRIEDEN (“PEACE”).

After the election, everything – and nothing – will change

To close, some hard-and-fast predictions about the outcome. CDU/CSU will be the largest party and will need the SPD to govern. The open question is whether a two-party Grand Coalition will command a sufficient majority in Bundestag: if CDU/CSU do well at, say, 35 percent, and if Olaf-gone-renegade pulls the SPD back up towards the 20 percent mark, it may be enough for a repeat of the 2010s – especially if the FDP, BSW and Left all fail at close to the 5 percent hurdle, leaving only two other groups in the chamber (there was a similar situation in 2013). 

If both major parties do badly, though, and lots of smaller outfits make it in at just over 5%, things will get complicated – and there’ll be a “Kenya” coalition named for the colours of the African nation’s flag: black (CDU/CSU), red (SPD), and green. This is statistically the most likely outcome, and will leave the SPD and Greens in power having made the CDU/CSU jettison most of its manifesto. 

So unambitious Berlin business as usual, then. It may be 6th January, but don’t going expecting any epiphanies…

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