What is Germany's 'migration turnaround' actually achieving?

After a year in office, Germany’s black‑red coalition claims it has delivered a decisive shift in migration policy.

At the centre of this claim stands the Federal Interior Minister, Alexander Dobrindt of the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU), who speaks confidently of a "migration turnaround".

The numbers appear to support him. Asylum applications have dropped steeply, from around 350,000 in 2023 to 170,000 last year.

Net immigration also fell dramatically in 2025 – by at least 40 percent compared with the previous year – contributing to Germany’s population shrinking for the first time in years.

For Dobrindt, this decline offers evidence that firmer controls and tougher messaging are working. As a result, he has pledged to maintain border checks "until Europe’s migration system functions properly", arguing that security and order must take precedence even as the figures continue to fall.

But critics argue that the apparent success owes as much, or more, to external factors and earlier policy decisions as to anything introduced under Dobrindt himself.

Tougher border controls, similar numbers

During the 2025 election campaign, the CDU and CSU promised a markedly tougher approach to migration. Since taking office with the centre‑left Social Democrats (SPD), responsibility for delivering that pledge has rested largely with Dobrindt.

On his first day in office, he announced tighter controls at all German borders, building on checks already introduced by his predecessor, Nancy Faeser (SPD), in mid‑2024.

But the overall number of people rejected at Germany’s borders has barely shifted, according to figures cited by ARD – remaining in a similar monthly range to the period under Faeser.

What actually appears to have changed is who is being turned back at the border rather than how many.

Between the start of Dobrindt’s term and the end of April, around 1,340 asylum seekers were turned away – a practice that is legally permissible only in situations of acute overload.

Multiple courts have cast doubt on whether such conditions exist in Germany, including the Administrative Courts in Berlin and Koblenz.

The Interior Ministry is appealing these rulings – or has announced it will appeal them – while claiming those decisions represented isolated cases.

But Saarland’s Minister-President Anke Rehlinger (SPD) is just one of many experts and politicians to question this approach.

"Permanent border controls are not the way to go...in the heart of Europe," she said. "In the end, they do us more harm than good."

READ ALSO: Planned immigration crackdown by Bavaria's CSU slammed as 'propaganda'

‘Impressive PR’

Despite the sharp decline in migration numbers, Dobrindt has made clear that he intends to keep border controls in place.

Speaking on ARD’s Bericht aus Berlin, he said the current focus was on maintaining checks, with an eventual phase‑out possible only once Europe’s migration system functions properly – a point he says has not yet been reached.

But migration researcher Victoria Rietig of the German Council on Foreign Relations told ARD that the falling numbers could not be clearly linked to these controls.

While some measures have had a direct effect – including restrictions on family reunification and paused admissions programmes – they do not explain the scale of the decline, she said.

Reitig described the government’s attempts to take credit for the drop in numbers as an “impressive PR achievement”, saying that external factors including the end of the Syrian civil war had also played a decisive role.

READ ALSO: 'I did everything right' - Syrian student fights deportation from Germany

Deportations

Deportation figures further complicate the government’s narrative. Despite strong rhetoric about tougher enforcement, overall removals have not increased.

According to figures requested by the Left party, 4,807 people were deported from Germany in the first quarter of 2026, compared with 6,151 in the same period last year, when the previous government was still in office.

Dobrindt has nonetheless described renewed deportations to Syria as a breakthrough and concluded an agreement with the Taliban that enables returns to Afghanistan. Over the past twelve months, 138 men were deported under this latter arrangement.

READ ALSO: 'Severely discriminated against' - Why do skilled immigrants leave Germany?

Impact

While the statistics themselves may not appear dramatic, the headlines generated could still have significant effects.

Frequent announcements about stricter controls and high‑profile deportations, along with increasingly abrasive language on migration, risk damaging Germany’s reputation as a welcoming country – not only for refugees, but also for the skilled workers the economy urgently needs.

Intentionally or not, the Interior Ministry has taken a number of related decisions that appear to reinforce this impression.

For example, access to state‑funded integration courses has been curtailed dramatically since the start of the year. Nearly 30,000 applications were rejected in January and February alone after approvals for voluntary participants were frozen.

READ ALSO: ‘Short-sighted’ - Cutting access to integration courses in Germany doesn't make sense