Germany's federal election in February of this year was marked by an intense focus on immigration issues, thanks in no small part to the leader of the conservative Christian Democrat Union (CDU) Friedrich Merz.
While the CDU did win the largest portion of votes, and Merz ultimately did secure the Chancellery, a new study suggests that the party's right-ward shift on immigration issues actually cost it votes.
The study, by the CDU-affiliated Konrad Adenauer Foundation, stands in direct opposition to Merz's claims that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) can only be defeated by restricting immigration.
Rather, by focusing more on his economic policies and not passing bills with AfD cooperation, the Union would have won more voters.
"The Union was evidently unable to benefit from the emphasis on the migration issue from January 2025," the study, which was reported by Tagesspiegel  on Thursday, says.
A comparison of the election result to polls before the election revealed that the Union was not able to retain all of its voters through the campaign.
Crucially voters who sympathised with the Union before the election in November 2024, but then opted to vote for the SPD or the Greens, cited the party's "voting with the AfD" or the "firewall discussion" as their motive for doing so.
Meanwhile, the Left Party gained an impressive share of votes during this time -- from polling below the five percent threshold needed to be represented in the Bundestag to winning 8.8 percent in the election.
The study cites the Left's role as an "antipole against the right and the AfD" among its strengths in the past election, as well as "rent, tax and social policy..."
"The Left Party evidently benefited from the [CDU's] emphasis on the migration issue," the study concludes.
READ ALSO: Widespread pushback to Alternative for Germany as party calls for more 'remigration'
Ipsos surveyed a total of 3,535 citizens for the survey at the end of last year and 4,001 after the election this February. The Konrad Adenauer Foundation's study evaluated a survey of 700 respondents, and the intersection of both Ipsos surveys.
Immigration was not CDU supporters' biggest concern
The largest portion (29 percent) of CDU/CSU supporters named the weak economy, inflation and infrastructure as the most important political issues.
Immigration issues were mentioned as a top concern of 19 percent of conservative party voters, followed by war, international conflicts and foreign policy (14 percent).
On the other side of the political spectrum, most supporters of the Left Party named social injustice, poverty and rents in first place (21 percent), followed by concerns about the far-right and xenophobia (12 percent).
A misguided campaign
The CDU/CSU won the last Bundestag election with 28.5 percent of the votes. While that put them well ahead of the other parties, it was not as big of a victory as had been expected.
Just two months prior, polls had suggested the CDU/CSU had an approval rating of around 33 percent.
Then, under Merz's leadership, the Union parties began to ramp up their election campaigns with an emphasis on cracking down on immigration. The CDU leader spoke of "fundamental changes to immigration law" including permanent border controls, ramping up rejections of refugees and tightening citizenship law.
Crucially, CDU lawmakers passed a motion to curb immigration that was backed by votes from the AfD. A political scientist told The Local that the move signalled a "crack" in the firewall against the far-right.
Anecdotally, voters that we spoke to called the move "shocking" and one CDU voter even said they were considering switching their vote over the issue.
READ ALSO: How Europe's centrist governments can respond to the anti-immigration surge
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