What will Germany's new conscription law mean for young Germans and dual nationals?

Another day, another important issue on which Friedrich Merz’s coalition suddenly discovers it disagrees – and another embarrassing eleventh-hour delay.

This time, the problem is a proposed system for recruiting more youngsters into the armed forces. Although placing the emphasis on making the German army (Bundeswehr) more attractive as an employer, it also includes a compulsory questionnaire for young males and, as a last resort, a selection mechanism for conscripting them if sign-up targets aren’t reached.

Just a couple months ago, draft legislation went through cabinet without a peep. Yet only hours before a press conference to present the detailed proposal last week, SPD Defence Minister Boris Pistorius realised that he actually thought the system was far too complicated and that the planned lottery for compulsory service was a “lazy compromise”. In response, the CDU/CSU also rediscovered their own reservations about the plans.

The press conference had to be pulled last minute, leaving everyone with egg on their faces – and men under 25 wondering if, and under what circumstances, they might soon find themselves being bellowed at on a parade ground…

What is the argument about?

You could be forgiven for asking what the problem is. Firstly, conscription is already on the statute books in Germany, with a national service requirement for young men still in force as recently as 2011. Importantly, this Wehrpflicht was only suspended, not abolished.

Secondly, there is broad consensus on the necessity of beefing up the Bundeswehr. After decades of scrimping on guns and ammo in the illusion that Germany was ‘surrounded by friends’, Berlin has had a rude awakening. With hostile Russian troops stationed just a few hundred miles east, we need to be able to better defend ourselves and support our allies.

Thirdly, all major parties agree that there should at least be an attempt at voluntary recruitment first, with conscription as a back-up.

The problem lies in this last point: the carrot-and-stick approach is fine, except that thus far, young Germans have shown no interest in root vegetables. Despite years of recruitment drives, we have only 180,000 active soldiers and around 50,000 reservists – figures which, in view of the high average age of existing personnel, low enlistment numbers, and even lower retention rates, are set to fall further.

By comparison, France fields an army of around 200,000 on a population ten million lower than Germany's. Poland, with roughly half the population, also now has more soldiers than we do.

So, for all the talk of trying the nice way first, behind the scenes it is assumed that the carrot will very quickly have to be supplanted by the stick to meet our NATO target of 260,000 active soldiers supported by 200,000 reservists.

This is where it gets complicated politically.

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The CDU/CSU are, historically, the conservative party who believe that youngsters need a firm hand. The only problem is that national service was canned on their watch, so they risk looking like hypocrites if they advocate its return too loudly.

The SPD, meanwhile, is traditionally more attuned to the concerns of the young (i.e. not being forced to don camouflage and crawl through mud for months on end), but is currently enjoying its status as the party whose power-player Boris Pistorius is saving the Bundeswehr. So, here too, there is lots of mumbling rather than turkey-talking.

Essentially, neither side wants to stick its head too far over the parapet first – hence the sudden spat about details as each tries to pin the tail on the other.

What can we expect?

Theoretically, Germany’s dormant national service could be reactivated at any time – especially if there is a clear and present danger to national security. Wehrpflicht allows for males aged 18 and up to be medically examined, and for the army to call up as many of those who pass the muster as required. Conscientious objectors can instead volunteer for civil service (Zivildienst) in areas such as medical and social care.

But times have changed in the last 15 years. If national service were reintroduced as is, it could be challenged by the Constitutional Court on sex discrimination grounds; after all, the Bundeswehr now has female soldiers, so why should it have solely male conscripts?

The practical problems weigh even heavier. Germany has dismantled almost all of its infrastructure for examining, drafting, accommodating and training entire annual cohorts. Even mobilising every available rusty bunkbed in a barracks somewhere, the army can probably only handle a maximum of 25,000 new recruits annually.

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So the challenge is getting enough (but not too many!) suitable under-25s into contact with the forces and hoping that the right number stay on of their own accord after service. Currently, there is no better suggestion than a lottery. 

Nevertheless, given the urgency of the threat from the East (and the fact that young people are, electorally, a negligible quantity), my hunch is that the government will put aside its differences and adopt the legislation in or close to its current form.

There’ll be some horse-trading first – and, perhaps, some genuine improvements. To streamline proceedings and bring in more potential recruits, they might simply make all males aged 18 take a medical examine rather than having them start with a form about their health and views on the Bundeswehr (which does sound somewhat silly…).

What will renewed conscription mean?

Whatever form they come in, call-ups are now very likely to affect at least some German men currently in their late teens and early twenties.

Yet conversations with people who experienced Germany's previous mandatory service model reveal that, even when full conscription was in force, very few young men ended up in the army against their will.

Those with compliant doctors (and wealthy, privately-insured parents) would find some minor medical issue which prevented them from being called up (but not from working), while those unable to find the right GP or diagnosis would get their papers, but then opt for civilian service. The right to do the latter remains enshrined in legislation.

There is one group of German men, of course, who have still been called up all along: dual-nationals of other states which still have national service. Talk to Germans who also have Finnish, Greek, or Turkish passports, for example, and they’ll usually have a story to tell – mainly about how they managed to avoid the draft.

Some, however, actually did it: whether out of interest, to reconnect with their other home, or because they simply didn’t get themselves organised in time. These men, even if they’re still under 25, won’t have to serve again in Germany. An amendment introduced in 1963 exempts dual nationals who have done comparable service elsewhere.

Given the parlous state of the German barracks after 30 years of underfunding, I’d advise any young German-Finnish dual-nationals to bite the bullet and serve in Suomi. At least you’ll get decent quarters – and you might even get to ride a German-made tank (of which there are more in Finland). Most importantly, you’ll know exactly what’s expected of you!