German politics was thrown into disarray on Wednesday November 6th after Chancellor Olaf Scholz, of the SPD, fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP).
It triggered the breakdown of the 'traffic light' coalition government comprised of the centre-left Social Democrats, Greens and liberal Free Democrats.
Scholz said he would hold a vote of confidence, which he expects to lose, and that would lead to snap elections in March - months earlier than the original planned date of September 28th 2025.
But after pressure on Scholz from opposition politicians, businesses and the public for an earlier vote, parties finally reached a compromise on the timetable this week.
Scholz will face a vote of confidence in the Bundestag on December 16th. After Scholz loses this vote, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will have 21 days to dissolve parliament and then elections will have to be held within 60 days. Steinmeier is expected to dissolve the Bundestag on December 27th.
The date that everyone has agreed on for a new federal election in Germany is February 23rd next year.
READ ALSO: Germany plans to hold early election 'in February'
What happens now?
Forget Christmas. Forget the holidays: election mode is on.
Politicians will be getting their campaign materials ready and will be coming to a town centre near you to try and convince you to vote for them (if you have German citizenship, that is).
TELL US: How do you feel about early elections in Germany?
Key players are already talking to the media about their future wishes. Outspoken Bavarian state premier Markus Söder, for instance, said he was looking ahead to a possible future coalition of the conservative CDU/CSU and the SPD. But he added that getting rid of long-term unemployment benefits Bürgergeld, which the SPD pushed for, is a key aim for the conservatives.
One potential issue is that smaller parties will struggle to prepare for an early vote. That's why eight smaller parties - including the Animal Protection Party and the Pirate Party - have written an open letter to the government and Bundestag calling for lower registration thresholds.
According to current rules, they have to collect more than 27,000 supporting signatures for their state lists in order to be allowed to take part.
"Normally, we would have several months until the summer to do this," the letter stated. "In the event of early elections, however, we would have just a few weeks. This hurdle in such a short time is unreasonable and contradicts the principles of a fair democracy."
Who will be in Germany's next government - and who will be chancellor?
Technically it's all to play for, but there are strong indications of how the public is feeling. The conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party, the CSU, are soaring in opinion polls at the moment, with more than 30 percent.
Scholz's Social Democrats are in third position on around 16 percent. They sit behind the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which is polling at around 18 percent.
The Greens have around 11 percent support, while the FDP are hovering near the five-percent threshold for re-entry into the Bundestag.
A new face on the political scene is the hard-left, anti-immigration Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which is polling at six to seven percent.
Under Germany's voting system, it's highly unusual for any party to win a majority so a two-way or three-way coalition is likely.
That means, for instance, if the CDU/CSU won the election in Germany, they would likely hold talks with various different parties to try and put together a coalition.
READ ALSO: What would a CDU win mean for Germany?
This is often a fraught and drawn-out business in Germany that takes weeks or sometimes months. It took Scholz over two months to find an agreement between his party and his two coalition partners in 2021.
Commentators have said a coalition with the CDU/CSU and the SPD and possibly other smaller parties may be a way forward.
One thing we can be sure of is that the far-right AfD will not be in government - even if a lot of Germans vote for them - because parties have vowed not to work with them.
According to a poll on Wednesday, voters believe that CDU candidate Friedrich Merz is most likely to lead the next German government - and that Chancellor Scholz has only minimal chances.
Around 44 percent of the almost 2,200 respondents believe that Merz has the best chance of becoming the next chancellor, according to the survey conducted by YouGov on behalf of DPA. Only six percent believe Scholz has the best chance of leading the next German government, and seven percent believe the Green candidate, Economics Minister Robert Habeck, has what it takes.
READ ALSO: Will Germany's dual citizenship law remain after new elections?
What about laws in progress?
As you can imagine, things are up in the air. The SPD and Greens are operating as a minority government which means not a lot can get done unless they receive support from opposition parties.
Chancellor Scholz said this week that he is keen to preserve some of the legislation currently in progress.
Scholz plans to put important laws he says can't be postponed - such as tax matters and pensions - to a vote in the Bundestag by the end of the year.
The centre-left leader said he will seek talks with CDU leader Friedrich Merz to try and drum up support - though the latter has so far seemed reticent about doing anything that could help his political opponent ahead of a crucial election.
READ ALSO: How Germany's tax plans for 2025 could affect you
Has anything like this happened before?
The collapse of a German government in this way is rare but not unprecedented.
Similar to last week's events, Social Democrat chancellor Helmut Schmidt in September 1982 saw his coalition partner the FDP quit the government over differences on economic policy.
A "constructive vote of no confidence" on October 1st saw conservative Helmut Kohl installed as new chancellor.
Kohl then called another vote of confidence in December to precipitate new elections in March 1983, which he won.
With reporting from AFP
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