On Sunday, Baden‑Württemberg, one of Germany’s largest and most economically powerful federal states, will elect a new state parliament.
Home to more than 11 million people, Baden‑Württemberg is widely regarded as Germany’s industrial heartland. Global companies such as Mercedes‑Benz, Porsche and Bosch are headquartered here, and the state’s prosperity is closely tied to the fortunes of the automotive industry.
Since 2011, the state has been governed by the Green Party, making it the only German state ever to have a Green minister‑president. Winfried Kretschmann, who has led the state for 15 years, is now stepping down.
For many younger voters, this will be their first state election without his name on the ballot.
The vote also serves as the opening act of Germany’s 2026 “super election year”, and it comes during a period of deep economic anxiety.
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Greens and CDU neck and neck
The race for the state's top seat is unusually tight. The contest has been led by the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), led in the state by Manuel Hagel, and the Greens, whose top candidate is Cem Ă–zdemir, a veteran federal politician and former party leader.
Weeks earlier polls had put the CDU in a clear lead, but they have since narrowed dramatically, with the most recent surveys placing the two parties neck and neck.
The election here is being watched closely, even beyond the state itself. As the first of five state elections to come this year, it is seen as an early test for the federal “black‑red” coalition of the CDU and Social Democrats (SPD).
A poor result for either governing party could unsettle the coalition and shape campaigning in other states, particularly Rhineland‑Palatinate later this month.
The issues shaping the campaign
The economy dominates the campaign. Baden‑Württemberg’s dependence on manufacturing and car production means that announcements of job cuts at major firms have had a particularly strong impact.
Voters consistently rank economic conditions as their top concern, and all major parties are focusing on job security, industrial competitiveness and cutting bureaucracy.
Immigration is the second most important issue, according to the polls, followed by housing and rising rents.
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Who stands to gain – and lose
For the CDU and the Greens, the stakes are high.
A CDU victory would mark a return to power after more than a decade in opposition in the state, and be seen by many as a return to business as usual.
Similarly, a win for the Greens would show that the party has put down deep roots in the state that can survive Kretschmann’s departure.
The two candidates are campaigning tirelessly but with a notable restraint. As current coalition partners in the state government – and with polls pointing towards another tight result – both sides are aware they will probably have to continue governing together after Sunday’s vote, regardless of who wins.
The centre-left SPD faces a difficult night with polls suggesting it may fall below ten percent, potentially recording its worst ever result in the state and underlining its long‑term decline in the southwest.
The liberal FDP is fighting to clear the five percent threshold. Failure to do so would see it leave the Baden‑Württemberg parliament for the first time in its history, ending more than seven decades of uninterrupted representation in its home state.
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Meanwhile, the Left Party is hoping to enter the Baden‑Württemberg parliament for the very first time.
The far‑right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is running with Bundestag member Markus Frohnmaier, who has said he would only move to Baden‑Württemberg if he became minister-president – a scenario that is highly unlikely.
The AfD is expected to become the strongest opposition party but remains isolated, as no other party is willing to govern with it.
New rules, new voters
This election is also different in how it is conducted. Baden‑Württemberg is voting under a reformed electoral law for the first time.
Voters now have two votes, similar to federal elections: one for a local constituency candidate and one for a party list, with the second vote determining the balance of power in parliament.
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In addition, the voting age has been lowered to 16. As a result, around 7.7 million people are eligible to vote, including tens of thousands of 16 and 17 year olds. How these new voters will influence the outcome remains uncertain, adding another layer of unpredictability
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