Americans will go to the voting booth on November 5th, and increasingly nation-wide polls in the US are showing Vice President Kamala Harris just ahead of former President Donald Trump.
At time of writing, the national 538 poll had Harris leading by 2.8 percent.
So it's safe to say that a Harris-led White House is a very real possibility.
Having served as Vice President to Joe Biden, it’s clear that from a foreign policy perspective a Harris presidency can be expected to be a continuation of the Biden White House in many ways. On the other hand, by virtue of running against her opponent, she is judged by many (favourably or not) as simply being the alternative to Trump.
But being an energetic 59 year-old, with a background as the attorney general of California, Harris certainly has her own agenda on certain issues.
So a couple months ahead of the US election, let’s take a look at what a Kamala Harris presidency would likely mean for Germany and its relations with the US.
Security
In her actions during the last US presidential term, Harris has demonstrated support for Ukrainian defence and shown that she is a staunch supporter of NATO.
For example, in her time as Vice President, Harris has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky half-a-dozen times.Â
She has also stepped in for Biden at three annual Munich Security Conferences. At this year’s conference, she pledged the US would support Ukraine for “as long as it takes”.
According to reports, Harris also helped negotiate the landmark US-Russia prisoner-swap deal during a closed-door meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
The deal was largely celebrated as a success, as it saw the release of five German nationals, a US journalist and several high-profile Russian opposition figures. But it was not without its controversy, because it also involved releasing a convicted gunman believed to be a Russian agent.
READ ALSO: Germany's 'deal with the devil' in Russia prisoner swap
More recently, Harris has criticised Trump’s claim that he would pull the US out of NATO. She has described NATO as “the greatest military alliance the world has ever known”.
In short, a Harris presidency would mean the continuation of Germany-US cooperation on security issues.
READ ALSO: What would a second Trump presidency mean for Germany?
Trade
During Trump’s term, he introduced a number of tariffs on imports, and under Biden many of those tariffs have remained. So existing tariffs can be expected to remain under Harris, but it’s very unlikely that she would further intensify tariffs as Trump has suggested he would do.
The German Economic Institute (IW) has suggested that the tariffs Trump has proposed, along with Europe’s own tariffs against Chinese EVs and other imports, would cost Germany €150 billion by 2028. So it seems that the German economy will have fewer expenses to worry about under a Harris term.
Also, it can be expected that Harris’ cabinet would continue to implement policies in tandem with the EU and Germany to try and prevent China from gaining further economic dominance in tech or car production.
READ ALSO: Americans in Germany - How to vote in the US presidential election from abroad
Climate
Between record breaking floods across Southern Germany and then Central Europe this summer, fires across Southern Europe, and recent news about hurricane storm surge wiping neighbourhoods off the map in the Southern US, around the world people are experiencing the impact of climate change this year.
But Harris’ campaign hasn’t made the subject a major focus of her campaign.
Asked about climate change in the nationally broadcast presidential debate, Harris acknowledged the seriousness of the issue for just 40 seconds before switching to talking about US petroleum.
“I’m proud that as vice president over the last four years we have invested a trillion dollars in a clean energy economy, while we have also increased domestic gas production to historic levels,” Harris said in the debate.
Some of that US-produced gas is shipped directly to Germany, and represents a meaningful part of the country’s efforts to offset Russian oil.
READ ALSO: Will US climate plans affect German gas supply?
But critics would say that highlighting gas production in response to a question about climate policy shows the Harris campaign is so far offering little in terms of concrete plans for action on climate change.
Under Harris, the US will continue funding its clean energy transition via the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), whereas Trump would almost certainly try to undo the act completely.
In Germany the IRA has been blamed for attracting green tech and green energy projects away from Europe and toward the US, but most people agree that any large-scale efforts to mitigate the impact of climate change needs to be continued, not stopped, or reversed.
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