What would a second Trump presidency mean for Germany?

As with major media outlets around the globe, the German media is currently obsessed with the US presidential election.

A glance at the front page of Germany’s leading news outlets on Monday July 22nd reveals that US President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the next presidential election is the biggest news of the day, even in Germany.

At time of writing, the top stories on virtually every German news website are about Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and the US election.

While Biden and Harris have stolen the spotlight for now, perhaps no US character has dominated the German media landscape in recent history quite like former President Donald Trump. Even as of 2021 (following the last election cycle) Trump had been featured on the cover of Der Spiegel, Germany’s best-selling weekly news magazine, 28 times.

More recently, Trump’s presidential election bid has brought him back to Spiegel’s focus. On the cover of the latest issue, published July 20th 2024, a red baseball cap is seen with a splotch of blood dripping off the side – a dramatic visual reference to the assassination attempt that resulted in an injury to Trump’s ear.

But Germany’s nervous obsession with US politics is not without reason. It is widely understood that the US' next choice of president will have a direct impact on Europe, specifically around international security and trade issues, and Germany in particular is positioned to be strongly impacted.

Here’s a look at how a second Trump term could affect Germany.

Security

Perhaps the most immediate threat to Germany, should Trump take the helm in the US for a second term, is an emboldened Russia at Europe’s doorstep.

Trump’s admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin is well-known. Shortly after Putin began his invasion of Ukraine, Trump reportedly called the move “genius” and “savvy”.

More recently, Trump has criticised the Biden administration for supporting Ukraine with billions in weapons and defence funding. According to reporting by Reuters, Trump’s top advisers have devised a plan to cease weapons deliveries to Ukraine unless the country engages in "peace" talks with Russia.

German top officials, however, are wary of letting Russia achieve victory in Ukraine – fearing that an emboldened Russia is more likely to take its chances pushing further into other European countries.

German defence minister Boris Pistorius has previously warned that Russia may attack a NATO country within “five to eight years”. 

READ ALSO: What a Russian victory in Ukraine would mean for Germany

Additionally, NATO itself is threatened by another Trump presidency. Trump has long been critical of the treaty, claiming that the US bears an outsized burden of its cost.

At a campaign rally this year, speaking about NATO countries who have not met suggested defence spending levels, Trump said: “I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them (Russia) to do whatever the hell they want”.

Trump’s recently appointed running mate, J.D. Vance, echoed this sentiment in a recent op-ed published by Financial Times, in which he said that Germany relies on “borrowed military strength”.

Germany is among the NATO countries that has not maintained a defence budget equal to two percent of its national GDP until recent years. In an effort to hit that target, Germany recently allocated a ‘Bundeswehr special fund’ to bolster its defence budget. But significant budget gaps remain.

READ ALSO: How can Germany meet NATO's two percent defence spending target?

Earlier this month US President Biden and Chancellor Scholz announced a plan to station longer-range US missile systems in Germany. This can be seen, at least in part, as a move meant to bring the US and Germany closer together ahead of a possible Trump presidency.

Trade

Beyond security issues, the US presidential election will be a pivotal moment for the global economy, and for US and European trade relations.

Trump’s 'America-first' trade policy is based on import tariffs, which could be expected to increase in a tit-for-tat fashion, pushing the US into a potential trade war with the EU that would also impact the German economy.

Trump’s current plan involves a 10 percent tariff on worldwide imports to the US, and further tariffs from 60 percent or more on all imports from China.

The German Economic Institute (IW) has estimated that these proposed tariffs, combined with Chinese counter-tariffs would cost Germany €150 billion by 2028, which would be enough to cut the country’s annual economic growth by 1.4 percent of GDP and likely bring an economic depression. 

The Economist Intelligence Unit analysed which countries faced the highest risk in the event of a second Trump term, creating a Trump Risk Index (TRI).

According to the TRI, close US partners would be among the most affected, with Germany scoring 3rd highest for overall risk, behind Mexico and Costa Rica.

The report notes that “Germany and Ireland are assessed to be the most exposed geographies in Europe” for negative trade impacts. This is primarily because Germany maintains a high trade surplus with the US, which would likely take a significant hit following the increase of import tariffs there.

Climate

Anyone familiar with Trump’s rhetoric should not be surprised that he and Vance referred to climate change as the “green new scam” in recent speeches, and suggested that prosperity in the US requires more fossil fuel development.

First of all, both Vance and Trump introduced a new term, replacing "hoax," that suggests climate change isn't real.

That term is "Green New Scam."

2/n pic.twitter.com/FbUFQLOekT

— Dr. Genevieve Guenther (@DoctorVive) July 20, 2024

“We have more liquid gold under our feet than any other country by far. We are a nation that has the opportunity to make an absolute fortune with its energy,” Trump said in a speech at the Republican National Convention, disregarding the fact that damages due to climate change are already projected to cost $38 trillion (€35 trillion) a year globally by 2050.

While the President of the US doesn’t have the authority to directly interfere with Germany’s own climate policy, another Trump term would be a catastrophic step backward for US climate policy, which would ultimately add to the intensifying climate effects already being felt in Germany.

Fuelling far-right aspirations

Trump’s fans in Germany tend to be from far-right, populist parties. For example, AfD party leader Alice Wiedel recently said she was keeping her fingers crossed for Trump on a ZDF tv show.

Wiedel cited Trump’s promise to end financial support to Ukraine as her main reason for siding with him. 

But Trump’s platform has a number of similarities to Europe’s far-right parties, and there is reason to believe that a Trump victory across the Atlantic could bolster support for the AfD or other alt-right parties in Germany. 

In a recent interview, Club of Rome co-President Sandrine Dixson-Declève told The Local that the more right wing governments take power, the more they feel emboldened to step toward authoritarianism.

READ ALSO: INTERVIEW - 'Failed climate policies are fuelling far-right politics in Germany'

Of populist politicians and upcoming elections in Europe Dixson-Declève said, “They talk like Trump. They walk like Trump…It's absolutely fundamental to vote, so that we don't slide to the right across Europe.”