Germany set for 'coldest Christmas in 15 years'

If you've been hoping for a white Christmas in Germany this year, you'll likely be disappointed. 

According to the German Weather Service (DWD), there is a chance of snow in some areas in the south – but only small amounts of snowfall are expected.

It's still going to be cold, however. Forecasters expect frost, sub-zero temperatures and possibly the coldest Christmas since 2010.

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The meteorologists' prediction is based on the average temperature for Germany, which is expected to be around -2C to -3C over Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Boxing Day. 

Boxing Day 2021 was also a cold one in Germany, with temperatures dropping to an average of -2.5C. However, "if we take all three days into account, this Christmas will probably be the coldest in 15 years", said meteorologist Nico Bauer.

Bauer said the last time Germany saw very cold Christmas weather was back in 2010. The average temperature over the three holiday days was -5.2C. This figure is based on measurements from all DWD stations in Germany below 920 meters.

What does the forecast tell us for the next days?

In the coming days, significantly colder but dry frosty air will arrive in Germany from Eastern Europe. On Thursday (Christmas Day) and Friday (Boxing Day), it will be sunny and dry in many places.

On Wednesday morning (Christmas Eve), the Mercury fell to -3C, and even to -6 at higher altitudes.

In Berlin it was around -2C at 10am, but winds were making it feel like -6C. 

In the south and in low mountain ranges, a thin layer of fresh snow is forecast in some areas. Between 1-3 cm of snow is expected in areas south of the Danube, and some areas could even see up to 5cm of the white stuff.

In Munich, a snow shower was expected at around 1pm on Wednesday. 

Santa Claus will have to keep warm while delivering presents: in the early hours of Christmas Day, temperatures will drop to between -1 and -9C across the country, and even down to -12C in the east. 

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Has Germany seen snow on Christmas often?

"The probability of a white Christmas has fallen significantly in recent decades," said DWD expert Andreas Walter.

The last time there was at least one centimetre of snow cover on all three days of Christmas in Germany, including the lowlands, was in 2010. Comparing the 30-year periods from 1961 to 1990 and 1991 to 2020, there's been a decline in the probability of snowfall of 15 to 40 percent.

Munich, for example, statistically saw a white Christmas every third year between 1961 and 1990, according to atmospheric researcher Bodo Ahrens from the University of Frankfurt. But between 1991 and 2020, this was only the case about every ninth year.

In Freiburg, the probability of snow at Christmas has fallen from 17 percent to around five percent over the past three decades.

And compared to previous years, snow also melts faster, if it does arrive.

"In the past, we used to have more of these long-lasting, cold high-pressure systems. So when there was snow, it stayed around for a while," said Ahrens.

Experts say the cold conditions have become less frequent due to climate change.