How hot will it get?
According to the German Weather Service (DWD), average temperatures across Germany are expected to be higher each month this summer than the average temperatures seen in the same months from 1991 to 2020.
Having originally estimated the chances of a warmer summer (than the average for the summers between 1991 and 2020) at 81 percent, the DWD has now upgraded the probability to 93 percent.
A report by the Weather Channel also suggests that Germany could see a heat dome event from July, which occurs when a high-pressure system traps hot air over a specific region and often causes significantly higher temperatures and prolonged heat waves.
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While it's important to note that long-term weather forecasts always come with a degree of uncertainty – weather systems are notoriously complex, affected by temperatures, air pressure, humidity, winds, as well as far-away influences like ocean surface temperatures – seasonal climate forecasts do enable meteorologists to determine at least a rough trend for the coming weeks, months, and years.
2025: year of the “yo-yo summer”?
Following two days of the highest temperatures recorded yet this year, meteorologists are now predicting a period of lower temperatures accompanied by thunderstorms, heavy rain or hail and strong winds in many parts of Germany.
Meteorologist Dominik Jung recently suggested that predictions of hotter and drier conditions through the majority of this summer don’t seem to fit the wild weather swings that are currently being seen.
"In my opinion," Jung wrote, "a consistent summer high is not in sight." Instead, he predicts more roller coaster weather conditions and a "yo-yo summer".
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More mosquitos and restrictions on shipping a possibility
Partly as a result of low rainwater levels during the winter, large parts of Germany are already experiencing extreme drought, according to the drought monitor at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research.
In addition to increasing the risk of forest fires, this means that regions in southern Germany – currently experiencing a combination of warmer temperatures and shallow waters – could be in for “a very mosquito-laden summer," according to Julia Heiermann at the environmental NGO NABU.
In west Germany meanwhile, a spokesperson for Rhine Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSA) has warned of the possibility of restrictions on shipping on the Rhine. Water levels on some parts of the river, Germany's most important commercial waterway, are at the lowest level seen in decades at this time of year.
While the world as a whole has already warmed by around 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, European land temperatures have increased by almost 2°C, according to the latest figures from the European Environment Agency.
Commenting on the figures, Carolina Kyllmann of Clean Energy Wire summed up the implications: “In addition to heatwaves … persistent low levels of rainfall are becoming more common and, when the rain does come, it is frequently in prolonged downpours, causing flooding. Fires are also becoming more intense and more common.”
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