How likely are extreme heatwaves in Germany this summer?

June has started out cool with scattered showers across Germany, but current weather forecasts suggest that the country could see a widespread heatwave later this week.

Longer-term seasonal forecasts suggest that Germany could be headed for a particularly hot summer, with higher than average temperatures from July to September, and likely also more heat waves than were seen in previous years.

But longer term weather forecasts are tricky, and a scorching summer is not yet certain.

What do climate forecasts predict for the coming summer?

According to the German Weather Service (DWD), average temperatures across Germany are expected to be higher each month this summer than the average temperatures seen in the same months from 1991 to 2020.

The DWD’s figures suggest that Germany could see summer temperatures comparable to those recorded last year.

But a report by the Weather Channel says that Germany could see a heat dome event from July.

A heat dome happens when a high-pressure system traps hot air over a specific region, causing significantly higher temperatures and often prolonged heat waves.

From July on, the Weather Channel puts the probability of Germany experiencing one of its hottest summers at more than 70 percent.

READ ALSO: Which German cities are best prepared for extreme heat?

That said, long-term weather forecasts always come with a degree of uncertainty. Weather systems are notoriously complex – being affected by temperatures, air pressure, humidity, winds, as well as far-away influences like ocean surface temperatures.

The climate model used by the DWD was developed by the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Rather than a simple weather forecast for the coming days, seasonal climate forecasts look at an ensemble of different weather prediction models. If the DWD creates an ensemble of ten initial parameters and eight of them predict a hot summer, then the probability of a hot summer would be 80 percent.

What is known for sure is that average temperatures have trended upward in recent decades due to human caused climate change.

First summer heatwave expected from Thursday

Following cool weather at the start of June – and scattered showers that brought at least temporary relief to drought conditions in much of Germany – weather forecasts are calling for high temperatures this week. 

"What we are experiencing here is a 180-degree weather turnaround," meteorologist Johannes Graf warned in a forecast for Wetter.net. 

As late as the Pentecost weekend, ground frost was seen in some parts of Germany. But from Tuesday temperatures are expected to rise rapidly, with high temperatures of 30C expected in the southwest by Wednesday.

Daily high temperatures of around 30C are expected across much of the country on Thursday, Friday and Saturday, which would mark the first heat wave in many places in 2025. (In Europe, heat waves are generally defined as three consecutive days with temperatures of 30C or more.)

Night-time temperatures are also expected to be warm during this time – at around 20C in some places. These so-called "tropical night” conditions can be stressful, especially for older people and people with circulatory problems.

Staying hydrated and ventilating the house at night are good practices during back-to-back hot days.

READ ALSO: 8 places in North Rhine-Westphalia to escape the heat this summer

Following high temperatures at the weekend, a period of cooler weather is predicted to follow one week later, along with heavy rain or hail and strong winds in some places.

Meteorologist Dominik Jung suggested in a recent column that predictions of hotter and drier conditions through the majority of the summer don’t seem to fit the wild weather swings that are currently being seen.

"In my opinion, a consistent summer high is not in sight," Jung wrote. Instead he predicts roller coaster weather conditions and a "yo-yo summer".