Around 2.56 million apartments need to be newly built or otherwise added to the German rental market by 2030 to meet growing demand, according to a study by the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development (BBSR).
For years the number of new apartments built has not kept pace with rising demand.
In 2023, around 294,400 new apartments were built across the country, whereas BBSR suggests that at least 320,000 new apartments were needed.
It's no surprise that in terms of apartments needed, Germany's major cities rank highest, with Berlin expected to need the most new flat built every year until 2030 to keep demand from growing even higher.
READ ALSO: 'Tense housing situation' - Why a Berlin renter can't be evicted for two years
But when you look at per-capita figures, it's actually a number of smaller cities in Bavaria that need the most housing relative to the number of current residents.
Which cities need the most new homes built?
In terms of real numbers, Berlin - notorious for it's extremely tight housing market - needs the most apartments built or vacated and added to the rental market. BBSR estimates that it needs about 23,000 more per year until 2030 to keep pace with the cities growing demand.
Munich, Hamburg, Frankfurt, Stuttgart, Cologne and DĂĽsseldorf also need significant numbers of apartments built.Â
READ ALSO: 13,000 unused flats in Frankfurt - Why Hesse plans to crack down on empty housing
Tagesspiegel reported that these cities combined will need another 37,000 apartments built each year as well.
Where has the highest housing need per-capita?
But its actually Bavarian cities outside of Munich that need the most apartments built relative to their numbers of inhabitants.
According to BBSR forecasts, for every 10,000 inhabitants in the Bavarian city of Landshut, 87 apartments are needed.
In fact the top five cities with the highest housing need per capita are all found in the Free state of Bavaria.
READ ALSO: Why Bavaria is one the world's top travel destinations for 2025
Regensburg is in second place, needing 83 new apartments for every 10,000 residents, followed by Kempten im Allgäu (77) and Memmingen (75).
Finally, the Bavarian capital of Munich ranks fifth with 74 apartments needed per 10,000 residents.
In comparison, Berlin needs about 66 new apartments per 10,000 residents, Frankfurt needs 55 and Hamburg needs 54.
Which regions have an adequate supply of housing?
Outside of Bavaria, Germany's rural regions tend to have a low to moderate need for new housing - with just a few exceptions, including in the districts around Frankfurt or Hamburg.
Many districts in the former East German states have the lowest need for new housing.
BBSR analyst Anna Maria MĂĽther told Tagesspiegel, "Especially in districts with a declining population, it is important not to boost the vacancy rate of tomorrow [by building too many homes] and, instead to develop the existing stock."
Based on current population trends in these areas, its expected that one in five of the households in these regions may be gone by 2045.
Why is housing demand soaring in Germany?
Germany's population has largely stabilised and is not expected to grow too much in the coming decade. In fact, if current trends continue the country's population could peak in 2028 and then begin to decline slowly in the following years.
However, experts don't think that the slight decline in population will relieve the housing market.
The BBSR predicts that the number of households in Germany will continue to tick steadily upward, growing by 1.3 percent to 42.6 million by 2030.
The study's authors suggest a contributing factor is the "continuing trend of singularization and aging". In other words, Germany is seeing an increase in one-person households that is adding to the growing demand for housing.
READ ALSO: How much do you need to earn in Germany to buy a million euro home?
Comments