What will happen to Germany’s one million Syrians after Assad’s fall?

Thousands of Syrians living in Germany celebrated the fall of President Bashar al-Assad on Sunday.

But shortly following those celebrations began the political response, as European countries, including Germany and Austria, suspended asylum requests from Syrian nationals.

Conservative politicians in Germany have already spoken out in favour of encouraging Syrian refugees to return to their former homes.

But others are urging restraint, suggesting it would be rash to seriously change Germany’s asylum policy, especially while there is still uncertainty about what Syria’s next chapter may look like.

Syrians’ asylum requests suspended

Interior Minister Nancy Faeser confirmed on Monday that Germany has suspended decisions on asylum requests from Syrians amid the "unclear situation" in the war-torn country after the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad.

"Many refugees who have found protection in Germany now finally have hope of returning to their Syrian homeland and rebuilding their country," Faeser said in a statement.

But she also cautioned that "the situation in Syria is currently very unclear".

She added: "Therefore, concrete possibilities of return cannot yet be predicted at the moment and it would be unprofessional to speculate about them in such a volatile situation.

"In view of this unclear situation, it is right that the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees has today imposed a freeze on decisions for asylum procedures that are still ongoing until the situation is clearer," she said.

According to the Interior Ministry, there are currently 974,136 people with Syrian nationality residing in Germany.

Of these, 5,090 have been recognised as eligible for asylum, 321,444 have been granted refugee status and 329,242 have been granted subsidiary protection, allowing them to remain temporarily, with tens of thousands of other cases still pending.

Early calls to send Syrians home

Almost as quickly as news broke about the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime, conservative politicians made statements suggesting they were keen to support Syrians who want to return home.

Christian Democrat (CDU) foreign policy expert Jürgen Hardt, for example, told ZDF’s Morgenmagazin, “I believe that there will be a reassessment of the situation in Syria and thus also a reassessment of the question of who is allowed to seek protection with us and who is not…”

While most of these comments were framed to suggest that Germany would be helping refugees and asylum seekers who wanted to go home, critics have warned to approach the situation with haste. 

Jens Spahn, deputy chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, said on RTL/ntv’s morning tv program: “How about the federal government offers anyone who wants to go back to Syria a ride on a chartered plane and an entry fee of €1000.”

Of course not everyone agrees with the CDU’s eager response.

Green European politician Anton Hofreiter, warned against taking tougher action against Syrian refugees in Germany. 

"It is completely unclear how things will continue in Syria now," he told the Funke media group, adding that rewriting the migration policy immediately would be “completely misplaced."

Hofreiter’s stance reinforced that of the German Foreign Ministry.

"The fact that the Assad regime has been ended is unfortunately no guarantee of peaceful development," Foreign Ministry spokesman Sebastian Fischer said on Monday.

"Whether this new situation will result in new refugee movements or whether, on the contrary, if the situation stabilises, displaced persons and refugees will have the opportunity to return to their homeland in the long term, remains to be seen," Fischer said.

How many Syrians call Germany home?

Germany took in almost one million Syrians, Europe's biggest diaspora from the war-ravaged country, with the bulk arriving in 2015-16 under ex-chancellor Angela Merkel.

While some of that population maintain a strong desire to return to their homeland, others have since integrated and made Germany their home.

Of the people applying for German citizenship in 2023, Syrians were the largest group.

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No matter how they came to Germany initially, Syrian nationals who have since achieved a residence permit or citizenship will of course be able to remain in the country.

For those who are still residing here as refugees, or waiting for their applications to be processed, their ability to remain depends on how the situation develops both in Germany and in Syria.

With additional reporting by AFP.