It's been a busy month for politics in Germany, with elections in the states of Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg.
On Sunday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD) scored a somewhat unexpected victory in Brandenburg, the state surrounding Berlin.
The centre-left SPD won around 30.9 percent of the vote, gaining a slight lead over the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD), which scored about 29.2 percent, according to projections by public broadcasters.
Meanwhile, new left-wing populist party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) landed in third place with about 13.5 percent of the vote and the Christian Democrats (CDU) took 12.1 percent.
With only 4.1 percent of the vote, the Greens missed the 5 percent threshold to make it into parliament. Other parties to miss the threshold include the Free Democrats (FDP) and Die Linke (The Left). In fact the FDP got less than 1 percent of the vote.
READ ALSO: 6 articles to help you understand Germany's eastern state elections
The SPD (30.9%) won the elex in the east German state of Brandenburg, holding off the far-right AfD (29.2%). The upstart BSW placed 3rd, CDU 4th, per provisional official results.
— Michael Knigge (@kniggem) September 23, 2024
The SPD ?partners failed the 5%-threshold, w/ the FDP vote share too low to figure in the poll. pic.twitter.com/pcY1olcXaa
The Social Democrats won. Why?
It's a good question considering the current political climate. In Germany-wide polls, support for the SPD - who are currently leading the so-called 'traffic light' coalition in the federal government with the Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP) - has dropped significantly. A recent nationwide poll put the SPD on 15 percent, behind the CDU/CSU's 32 percent and the AfD's 20 percent.
Yet the SPD did gather the most votes at the ballot box in Brandenburg. Experts say this that Chancellor Olaf Scholz can't take credit for this achievement - even though his own electoral district is in the state capital of Potsdam.
The SPD has led the government in Brandenburg since Germany's reunification in 1990, so the state is a stronghold. Also state premier Dietmar Woidke is popular among locals.
In office for more than a decade, Woidke issued a dramatic challenge to voters by telling them he would quit if the AfD wins. It clearly paid off. In a survey conducted just before the vote, 65 percent said they considered him to be a good leader, and his support comes from across the board - with almost 30 percent of AfD supporters agreeing.
Woidke prefers to keep his distance from the federal stage - and did not have Scholz involved in his campaign.
Others said the result was a reaction to the far-right AfD winning the vote in the state of Thuringia. German daily Bild said political topics such as climate change or migration policy were not the deciding factor in this election.
"When the SPD won the state elections in Brandenburg, concerns about an AfD triumph and the Woidke factor overshadowed all factual issues," said the tabloid.
READ ALSO: 'Political earthquake' - What the far-right AfD state election win means for Germany
The AfD came second. Is it a victory for them?
Yes, they also see themselves as winners. Although they failed to "send Woidke into retirement" as they had said threatened to do, the party made strong gains.
It has managed to win a so-called blocking minority - for the second time after its success in Thuringia three weeks ago. With 30 out of 88 seats, it now has more than a third of the spots, and can therefore prevent decisions that require a two-thirds majority.
This applies, for instance, to the election of constitutional judges and constitutional amendments. This gives the AfD considerable influence, even though no other party wants to govern with it.
The AfD, which takes a hard-line stance against asylum-seekers, multiculturalism, Islam and 'mainstream party' policies, stunned the country a few weeks ago by winning for the first time ever in a state election in Thuringia, and coming a close second in neighbouring Saxony.
Party co-leader Tino Chrupalla said it had "taken gold once and silver twice" in three elections in the east this month.
The party was also hitting headlines for the wrong reasons after a deportation song was played at their election party.
To the tune of the song 'Das geht ab' by the the band Die Atzen, several supporters were seen singing a song about deporting immigrants.
"Hey, that's going down, We'll deport them all, deport them all", they sang in German, while holding up the slogan "Deport millions".
The scene was filmed by journalists causing widespread outrage online.
Feierstimmung à la #AfD auf der Wahlparty in #Brandenburg… pic.twitter.com/TXGXMSS8aB
— Franziska Klemenz (@FreieReporterin) September 22, 2024
Earlier this year, it was discovered that AfD members and others talked about a concept called 'remigration' - which would involve the mass deportation of immigrants and "non-assimilated citizens" from Germany - in the event of the party coming to power. The AfD distanced itself from the remigration plan at the time, but this incident raises further questions.
Woidke of the SPD said the AfD election result in Brandenburg was a "huge alarm signal for all of us, for all democrats and for all those who stand for freedom, open and tolerance".
READ ALSO: 'I'm worried for my kids': Foreigners in Germany fearful over rise of far-right
Who are the losers?
The Free Democrats are the big one and the coalition government could be, too. With just 0.8 percent of the vote, the liberals suffered a heavy defeat as they did in Saxony and Thuringia.
It is sending shockwaves to the government in Berlin - and may break the coalition earlier than the next federal election in autumn 2025.
FDP headquarters say the ‘traffic light’ government is damaging their party. The coalition parties have been at loggerheads for months over several issues such as migration policy, the budget and taxes.
A crisis meeting was being held on Monday morning among leaders of the party.
Some figures in the FDP are spelling out how serious it is. FDP General Secretary Bijan Djir-Sarai gave the impression to German broadcaster ARD that he was already done with the coalition, saying it will be an "autumn of decisions".
Meanwhile, FDP deputy leader Wolfgang Kubicki seemed to issue an ultimatum on Welt: "Either we actually manage to find a sensible common denominator here in the next 14 days, three weeks, or it no longer makes sense for the Free Democrats to continue participating in this coalition."
The Greens also had a tough night. Party leader Ricarda Lang said it was a negative trend and "we will fight our way out of it together". She said that lost trust among voters had to be regained.
How easy will it be to form a government in Brandenburg?
Like Saxony and Thuringia, politicians in Brandenburg will face a difficult time forming a government. Although the SPD is the strongest force, their previous coalition partners, the CDU and the Greens, lost ground significantly.
Woidke said he will first hold talks with his previous government partner, the CDU. However, this two-party alliance lacks a majority.
Because all parties in Germany refuse to work with the AfD, Woidke would only have a majority with the CDU and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which arguably makes the BSW winners in this election too.
The BSW's co-leader Amira Mohamed Ali said the party had an "open mind" to talking with the parties.
Political researcher Thorsten Faas highlighted the tricky situation ahead. "None of this is tried and tested," he told DPA. "There is no guarantee that this will be a smoothly functioning coalition."
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