Analysis: Will Germany's citizenship reform still pass?

It's a nail-biting time for foreigners in Germany, with long-awaited citizenship reforms to citizenship having recently faced not one, but two, delays. With millions of people waiting on the law to gain stability and voting rights in Germany, it's no wonder that many are feeling anxious about the slow progress of the law.

People unwilling to give up their existing passport to become German have been thrilled plans to allow multiple nationalities, while others are looking forward to being able to naturalise after just five years in the country - or three in exceptional circumstances. 

But with an increasingly hostile climate towards migrants, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) at 20 percent in the polls and the coalition parties fighting amongst themselves, people may be wondering if the whole thing could be scrapped.

READ ALSO: Germany's dual citizenship reform faces yet more delays

But to those anxiously awaiting their shiny mauve German passport, don’t be disheartened: though the road has been and will remain bumpy, it is highly unlikely to be a dead end.

Why has the citizenship bill been delayed?

According to DPA news agency, the latest disagreement relates to the coalition's plans to toughen up rules around claiming benefits.

Under the draft law as it stands, most people will be barred from gaining citizenship if they've claimed long-term unemployment benefits or other social welfare in the past (though ALG I doesn't count).

The SPD is understood to be pushing for disabled people, single parents and the relatives of carers to be granted exceptions to the rule after the draft law was criticised by Germany’s commissioner for disabled people.

Meanwhile, the Greens apparently want carve-outs for disabled people and those who become unemployed through no fault of their own.

However, the pro-business FDP is said to be blocking these amendments. 

What happens next? 

According to senior FDP politician Konstantin von Notz, the parties have agreed on the vast majority of the new law but are still thrashing out the last few details. 

“We are in very good, constructive and collegial conversations," he told The Local. "A lot is agreed, with little bits still open. We are ready to talk at any time and will get it done soon."

READ ALSO: TIMELINE: When will Germany push through the new dual citizenship law?

Alongside potential changes to the rules around claiming benefits, the law could also see new amendments that would bar people with anti-Semitic attitudes from becoming German.

Once the draft has been finalised, it will return to the Bundestag for a second reading, which could be immediately followed by a third reading and a vote - assuming there are no more amendments. 

The bill is expected to be back on the parliamentary agenda early next year, and could still come into force in April - a date that the Interior Ministry is aiming for.

Why has this bill been so difficult to pass? 

The question of whether Germany is a “Migrationsland” or land of migration seemed to be something that the traffic-light coalition all agreed on, particularly while facing major skill shortages.

But experts in migration such as Kings College’s Alexander Clarkson warn that the topic is always heavily fought-over and that nationhood is a complex issue in Germany.

Some still see only ethnic Germans as truly German, and memories of a fractious public debate during the last major citizenship reforms that allowed people without German parents to receive citizenship under former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) still linger.

READ ALSO: Should you apply for German citizenship before or after the new law comes in?

"Every citizenship bill has faced a backlash and led to half-measures that needed to be fixed by the next citizenship bill. It's frustrating but not the shock many portray this to be. It's an entrenched pattern in German migration policy," he told The Local earlier this year.

With some quite public infighting, it can seem like the traffic-light coalition is on its last legs, but even within this unhappy marriage there is plenty of progress being made, and according to reports it is one of the most successful at implementing their coalition agenda in decades.

The citizenship bill, which represents one of the Social Democrats' flagship reforms, is unlikely to fall by the wayside after it has been talked about, worked on and debated over for so long.